{"F": {"ts_code": "301488.SZ", "name": "豪恩汽电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230704", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 95.8, "pe_ttm": 164.7003, "pb": 4.0531, "dv_ttm": 0.3788, "total_mv": 971533.666, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.6, 22.2, 22.1, 23.0, 20.9, 20.1], "rev_series": [7.2, 9.8, 10.8, 12.0, 14.1, 17.9], "np_series": [0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [52.1, 48.0, 35.2, 14.2, 7.9, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.7, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 22.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.3, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.05, "capex_dep": 3.04, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 49.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": -10.5, "rev_yoy": 47.3, "np_yoy": -34.1, "np_vol": 22.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 80.5, "fwd_pe2": 64.7, "fwd_g1": 105.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 3.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车智能驾驶感知系统", 47.0], ["智算系统", 3.0], ["租赁及物业", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 180.7, "ret_prev2_year": -20.3, "ret_ytd": -37.2, "ret_pivot": 102.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.3, "ret_60": -34.8, "ret_120": -28.0, "ret_250": 21.0, "mdd_250": -57.0, "vol_250": 73.1, "pos_52w": 44.0}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 51, "hard": 28, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 164.7 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 80.5 倍,次年 64.7 倍,PEG 3.35。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 3.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 164.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -35% / -28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "豪恩汽电:PE 比行业中位高 134.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}