{"F": {"ts_code": "301479.SZ", "name": "弘景光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250318", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.74, "pe_ttm": 33.442, "pb": 4.5657, "dv_ttm": 0.7481, "total_mv": 594608.861, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.9, 26.4, 27.0, 30.5, 29.8, 23.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.5, 7.7, 10.9, 16.9], "np_series": [null, null, 0.6, 1.2, 1.7, 1.9], "roe_series": [21.1, 14.0, 25.0, 31.9, 32.6, 20.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.2, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 27.0, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 25.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.2, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.57, "capex_dep": 6.3, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 42.1, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 32.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 55.9, "np_cagr3": 50.6, "rev_yoy": 18.7, "np_yoy": -19.9, "np_vol": 98.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 19.5, "fwd_pe2": 14.1, "fwd_g1": 72.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新兴消费摄像模组", 57.0], ["新兴消费光学镜头", 20.0], ["智能汽车光学镜头", 19.0], ["其他业务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -22.8, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -22.7, "ret_120": -31.0, "ret_250": -35.7, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 48.9, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 55, "hard": 44, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.4 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 6.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.4 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -23% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "弘景光电:PE 比行业中位低 28.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}