{"F": {"ts_code": "301469.SZ", "name": "恒达新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230822", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.37, "pe_ttm": 25.4038, "pb": 1.8112, "dv_ttm": 1.38, "total_mv": 253854.76, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.5, 24.5, 18.9, 18.3, 14.3, 15.2], "rev_series": [6.7, 7.6, 9.5, 8.7, 10.1, 11.5], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 0.9, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [23.8, 21.8, 17.7, 9.0, 5.0, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 18.3, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.0, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.81, "capex_dep": 0.44, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 17.8, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": -6.2, "rev_yoy": 5.2, "np_yoy": 57.3, "np_vol": 15.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["医疗及食品包装原纸", 79.0], ["其他业务", 7.0], ["其他", 7.0], ["工业特种纸原纸", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.7, "ret_prev2_year": -30.0, "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_pivot": 49.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -2.5, "ret_120": -15.5, "ret_250": -3.5, "mdd_250": -44.1, "vol_250": 44.1, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 41, "hard": 48, "bondness": 40}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.4 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -2% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "恒达新材:PE 比行业中位高 3.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.9个百分点。"]}}