{"F": {"ts_code": "301459.SZ", "name": "丰茂股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.86, "pe_ttm": 43.9415, "pb": 2.599, "dv_ttm": 0.6277, "total_mv": 331732.0548, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 27.1, 29.0, 30.2, 30.6, 25.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 6.1, 8.0, 9.5, 9.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, 0.9], "roe_series": [42.8, 31.1, 32.7, 19.3, 14.3, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -4.4, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 29.0, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 16.8, "roe_median": 19.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.9, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 5.88, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 34.5, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 22.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 14.4, "np_cagr3": -3.6, "rev_yoy": 18.9, "np_yoy": -26.5, "np_vol": 31.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 23.4, "fwd_pe2": 17.1, "fwd_g1": 88.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["传动系统", 34.0], ["流体管路系统", 12.0], ["密封系统", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.5, "ret_prev2_year": -12.2, "ret_ytd": -27.9, "ret_pivot": 34.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": -33.2, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 60.0}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 54, "hard": 40, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 43.9 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 5.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.9 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -2% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "丰茂股份:PE 比行业中位高 14.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}