{"F": {"ts_code": "301448.SZ", "name": "开创电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.62, "pe_ttm": 239.1228, "pb": 6.7053, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 466725.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 19.2, 22.3, 24.8, 24.1, 20.7], "rev_series": [6.8, 8.1, 6.0, 5.9, 8.4, 7.4], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, -0.0], "roe_series": [43.4, 25.8, 19.8, 10.4, 10.3, -0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.7, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.71, "capex_dep": 15.45, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 25.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 52.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 7.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.3, "np_yoy": 140.8, "np_vol": 45.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 120.6, "fwd_g1": -132.0, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["切割工具", 27.0], ["打磨工具", 10.0], ["钻孔紧固工具", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 144.9, "ret_prev2_year": -27.0, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 165.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": 19.6, "ret_120": 6.7, "ret_250": 10.7, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 59.9, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 48, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 239.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%、固定资产占比 30%、资产负债率 26%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 15.45 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 239.1 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 20% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "开创电气:PE 比行业中位高 188.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}