{"F": {"ts_code": "301446.SZ", "name": "福事特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230725", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.16, "pe_ttm": 54.7772, "pb": 3.1598, "dv_ttm": 0.5382, "total_mv": 386464.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.8, 40.4, 38.1, 37.7, 37.0, 37.3], "rev_series": [3.9, 5.0, 4.6, 4.2, 4.7, 5.5], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 1.6, 0.8, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [48.7, 38.6, 41.5, 10.2, 6.5, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 19.2, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.2, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.16, "capex_dep": 2.0, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 16.8, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 28.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": -21.1, "rev_yoy": 39.2, "np_yoy": -11.7, "np_vol": 34.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["硬管总成", 19.0], ["油箱", 9.0], ["灭火系统", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.6, "ret_prev2_year": -8.1, "ret_ytd": 16.6, "ret_pivot": 115.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -11.5, "ret_120": -10.1, "ret_250": 28.7, "mdd_250": -42.8, "vol_250": 60.4, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 57, "hard": 45, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.8 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.7%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.00 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.8 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -12% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "福事特:PE 比行业中位高 26.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点。"]}}