{"F": {"ts_code": "301439.SZ", "name": "泓淋电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230317", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.03, "pe_ttm": 27.7377, "pb": 1.9623, "dv_ttm": 1.3307, "total_mv": 584820.0054, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.7, 15.3, 15.5, 15.1, 12.3, 13.2], "rev_series": [15.0, 24.5, 22.9, 24.8, 34.0, 39.7], "np_series": [1.2, 1.6, 1.8, 2.1, 2.0, 2.0], "roe_series": [22.3, 23.6, 20.8, 11.3, 6.9, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.8, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.4, "fix_assets": 14.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 3.2, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 41.0, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 20.1, "np_cagr3": 3.9, "rev_yoy": 22.2, "np_yoy": 10.8, "np_vol": 14.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电源线组件", 49.0], ["特种线缆", 47.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.2, "ret_prev2_year": -3.4, "ret_ytd": 2.2, "ret_pivot": 45.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": -12.6, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -10.6, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 64.0}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 44, "hard": 45, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.7 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 3.20 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.7 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -13% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "泓淋电力:PE 比行业中位低 15.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}