{"F": {"ts_code": "301429.SZ", "name": "森泰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "其他建材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230417", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.5, "pe_ttm": 41.8929, "pb": 1.5495, "dv_ttm": 1.7076, "total_mv": 206885.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.9, 22.2, 21.7, 25.9, 26.9, 27.2], "rev_series": [6.3, 9.1, 8.2, 6.2, 8.9, 9.7], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 0.8, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5], "roe_series": [29.2, 22.4, 15.9, 5.0, 4.7, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -10.1, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.6, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 3.14, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 22.8, "debt_mv": 8.3, "payout": 64.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": -15.4, "rev_yoy": -3.2, "np_yoy": -5.8, "np_vol": 25.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["高性能木塑复合材料产品", 30.0], ["新型石木塑复合材料产品", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.6, "ret_prev2_year": -23.8, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": 38.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -12.0, "mdd_250": -37.1, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 75.3}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 49, "hard": 59, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.9 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 3.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.9 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -2% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "森泰股份:PE 比行业中位高 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.8个百分点。"]}}