{"F": {"ts_code": "301421.SZ", "name": "波长光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 74.18, "pe_ttm": 171.3245, "pb": 7.078, "dv_ttm": 0.2022, "total_mv": 858396.124, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.9, 37.9, 37.6, 37.6, 32.8, 31.3], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.1, 3.4, 3.6, 4.2, 4.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [17.6, 18.9, 18.3, 7.0, 3.1, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 37.6, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 14.3, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.4, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.08, "capex_dep": 2.35, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 14.4, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 53.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": -16.7, "rev_yoy": 8.9, "np_yoy": 102.7, "np_vol": 19.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 185.5, "fwd_pe2": 125.7, "fwd_g1": -8.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 3.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光学元件", 44.0], ["光学组件", 42.0], ["光学系统方案与检测设计工具及其他（注）", 7.0], ["光学系统方案与检测设计工具及其他", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 94.8, "ret_prev2_year": -13.6, "ret_ytd": -28.7, "ret_pivot": 90.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": -18.2, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -55.8, "vol_250": 83.8, "pos_52w": 56.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 59, "hard": 45, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 171.3 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.6%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.6%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 171.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 84%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -18% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "波长光电:PE 比行业中位高 109.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}