{"F": {"ts_code": "301419.SZ", "name": "阿莱德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.7, "pe_ttm": 90.4266, "pb": 5.6908, "dv_ttm": 0.8964, "total_mv": 535500.357, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.7, 39.3, 37.9, 40.3, 37.7, 37.9], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.7, 4.0, 3.9, 3.5, 4.4], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [31.0, 24.0, 20.3, 8.4, 4.8, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 37.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": 14.3, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.0, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.69, "capex_dep": 3.76, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 10.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 84.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -5.0, "rev_yoy": 20.6, "np_yoy": -13.1, "np_vol": 22.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["射频与防护器件", 18.0], ["射频与透波防护器件", 18.0], ["电子导热散热器件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.5, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": 33.3, "ret_pivot": 136.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": 23.3, "ret_250": 34.6, "mdd_250": -50.6, "vol_250": 70.6, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 57, "hard": 29, "bondness": 52}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 90.4 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.9%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 3.76 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -8% / 23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "阿莱德:PE 比行业中位高 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点。"]}}