{"F": {"ts_code": "301418.SZ", "name": "协昌科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.99, "pe_ttm": 1183.3169, "pb": 1.5999, "dv_ttm": 0.2843, "total_mv": 256593.2167, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 30.1, 31.0, 28.0, 19.0, 11.5], "rev_series": [4.8, 5.3, 5.4, 4.5, 3.3, 3.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 0.8, 0.4, 0.0], "roe_series": [23.4, 20.0, 17.2, 7.3, 2.3, 0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -10.5, "ocf_yield": -5.8, "gm_median": 28.0, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 18.6, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.6, "capex_dep": 12.79, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 12.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 19.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -11.1, "np_cagr3": -64.0, "rev_yoy": 55.6, "np_yoy": -39.1, "np_vol": 35.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["晶圆", 17.0], ["运动控制器", 15.0], ["封装成品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.5, "ret_prev2_year": -35.0, "ret_ytd": -3.9, "ret_pivot": 23.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -23.8, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -8.6, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 21, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 1183.3 倍,估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.5%(经营现金流/市值 -5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 12.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1183.3 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -24% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "协昌科技:PE 比行业中位高 1105.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点。"]}}