{"F": {"ts_code": "301413.SZ", "name": "安培龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.28, "pe_ttm": 151.0098, "pb": 6.3457, "dv_ttm": 0.3751, "total_mv": 786981.9488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.3, 29.6, 33.3, 31.8, 32.2, 29.1], "rev_series": [4.2, 5.0, 6.3, 7.5, 9.4, 11.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [18.0, 12.9, 18.7, 9.6, 7.0, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.2, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.1, "fix_assets": 9.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.35, "capex_dep": 2.25, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 46.1, "debt_mv": 7.3, "payout": 32.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 23.7, "np_cagr3": 0.5, "rev_yoy": 7.1, "np_yoy": -91.7, "np_vol": 30.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["压力传感器", 25.0], ["热敏电阻及温度传感器", 23.0], ["氧传感器及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 154.2, "ret_prev2_year": -5.9, "ret_ytd": -44.6, "ret_pivot": 123.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.9, "ret_60": -32.7, "ret_120": -40.4, "ret_250": -40.6, "mdd_250": -65.0, "vol_250": 68.0, "pos_52w": 38.1}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 55, "hard": 67, "bondness": 25}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 10 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.3%,股息率 0.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 97%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(毛利率 31.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 151.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -33% / -40%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "安培龙:PE 比行业中位高 100.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.3个百分点。"]}}