{"F": {"ts_code": "301398.SZ", "name": "星源卓镁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.7, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.8764, "dv_ttm": 0.4202, "total_mv": 399845.3336, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.9, 42.5, 37.3, 35.7, 36.0, 29.0], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.2, 2.7, 3.5, 4.1, 4.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 0.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [22.8, 16.7, 8.3, 7.8, 7.4, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -5.2, "fcf_yield": -13.1, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 36.0, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -17.6, "npm_median": 20.8, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.2, "fix_assets": 9.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.82, "capex_dep": 11.82, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 49.0, "debt_mv": 13.6, "payout": 36.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.6, "np_cagr3": -6.5, "rev_yoy": 35.7, "np_yoy": -322.4, "np_vol": 27.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 42.0, "fwd_pe2": 22.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 84.0, "peg": 0.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["镁合金压铸产品", 28.0], ["镁合金产品", 28.0], ["铝合金产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.0, "ret_prev2_year": -5.3, "ret_ytd": -33.9, "ret_pivot": 53.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": -1.1, "ret_120": -31.4, "ret_250": -27.4, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 54.6, "pos_52w": 53.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 74, "bondness": 22}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 46%、毛利率 36.0% 两条都占,但所在行业(汽车)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 11.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -1% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "星源卓镁:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.7个百分点。"]}}