{"F": {"ts_code": "301397.SZ", "name": "溯联股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.52, "pe_ttm": 45.6219, "pb": 2.5205, "dv_ttm": 1.5641, "total_mv": 495714.4648, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 30.5, 32.7, 28.1, 22.9, 21.4], "rev_series": [5.8, 7.3, 8.5, 10.1, 12.4, 14.4], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, 1.5, 1.5, 1.2, 1.4], "roe_series": [26.6, 26.3, 28.1, 11.7, 6.3, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.9, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 28.1, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.0, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.52, "capex_dep": 3.89, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 10.8, "payout": 58.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": -2.6, "rev_yoy": -7.1, "np_yoy": -48.3, "np_vol": 20.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 23.9, "fwd_pe2": 20.3, "fwd_g1": 91.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["汽车流体管路总成", 30.0], ["汽车流体管路及总成", 30.0], ["汽车流体控制件及精密注塑件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 83.7, "ret_prev2_year": -31.3, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": 123.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.5, "ret_60": 7.6, "ret_120": 7.1, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 54.4, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 53, "hard": 37, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.6 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 3.89 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.6 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 8% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "溯联股份:PE 比行业中位高 15.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}