{"F": {"ts_code": "301388.SZ", "name": "欣灵电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.46, "pe_ttm": 95.5106, "pb": 2.6779, "dv_ttm": 0.7855, "total_mv": 260831.5896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.2, 30.0, 26.6, 22.9, 20.5, 22.6], "rev_series": [4.5, 5.2, 4.8, 4.4, 4.7, 4.8], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.6, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [31.2, 24.8, 8.9, 4.3, 1.6, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.3, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.68, "capex_dep": 2.11, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 22.2, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": -29.6, "rev_yoy": 21.7, "np_yoy": 73.2, "np_vol": 33.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["继电器", 28.0], ["合计特别调整", 13.0], ["配电控制", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.0, "ret_prev2_year": -4.4, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 52.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": -0.5, "ret_120": -35.0, "ret_250": -23.1, "mdd_250": -52.7, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 58.8}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 45, "hard": 48, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 95.5 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 95.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -0% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "欣灵电气:PE 比行业中位高 52.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.4个百分点。"]}}