{"F": {"ts_code": "301387.SZ", "name": "光大同创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.597, "dv_ttm": 0.1844, "total_mv": 578786.4486, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.2, 29.2, 28.9, 30.4, 22.9, 19.2], "rev_series": [8.3, 10.0, 10.0, 10.1, 12.2, 15.9], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 1.1, 1.1, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [30.0, 31.0, 21.7, 10.3, 1.3, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 28.9, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.9, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 3.6, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 40.4, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 58.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.0, "np_cagr3": -45.8, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": -171.2, "np_vol": 38.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["功能性产品", 28.0], ["防护性产品", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.4, "ret_prev2_year": -28.7, "ret_ytd": -2.5, "ret_pivot": 108.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -48.9, "ret_120": -10.1, "ret_250": 14.2, "mdd_250": -61.3, "vol_250": 67.0, "pos_52w": 45.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 38, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.9%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -49% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "光大同创:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}