{"F": {"ts_code": "301386.SZ", "name": "未来电器", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.23, "pe_ttm": 34.817, "pb": 1.9245, "dv_ttm": 2.4716, "total_mv": 283220.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.6, 32.5, 29.7, 29.6, 27.5, 28.0], "rev_series": [4.6, 4.6, 4.8, 5.6, 5.1, 5.5], "np_series": [1.0, 0.8, 0.8, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [25.2, 16.9, 14.3, 9.6, 6.0, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -10.9, "npm_median": 17.8, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.9, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 1.67, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 13.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 77.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": 6.2, "rev_yoy": -0.4, "np_yoy": -31.3, "np_vol": 14.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["塑壳断路器附件", 18.0], ["框架断路器附件", 15.0], ["微型智能终端电器", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.5, "ret_prev2_year": -15.0, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": 25.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -24.9, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -37.0, "vol_250": 33.1, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 51, "hard": 11, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.8 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%、固定资产占比 7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.67 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.8 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -3% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "未来电器:PE 比行业中位低 8.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}