{"F": {"ts_code": "301383.SZ", "name": "天键股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.93, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0144, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 390736.219, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.9, 18.0, 18.8, 20.3, 18.8, 12.4], "rev_series": [12.6, 14.1, 11.3, 17.6, 22.3, 18.6], "np_series": [0.8, 1.3, 0.7, 1.4, 2.1, -0.3], "roe_series": [30.5, 36.5, 14.3, 11.5, 10.8, -1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.5, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.0, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 2.5, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 11.9, "debt_ratio": 21.8, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 28.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.5, "np_yoy": -970.1, "np_vol": 82.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["耳机产品", 29.0], ["耳机", 29.0], ["其他声学产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -31.8, "ret_prev2_year": 14.2, "ret_ytd": -32.9, "ret_pivot": -9.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": -9.6, "ret_120": -22.5, "ret_250": -42.5, "mdd_250": -54.7, "vol_250": 46.5, "pos_52w": 56.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 34, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 22%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 2.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -10% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "天键股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}