{"F": {"ts_code": "301382.SZ", "name": "蜂助手", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信应用增值服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230517", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.9, "pe_ttm": 67.7117, "pb": 5.4004, "dv_ttm": 0.1347, "total_mv": 1052858.106, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.5, 28.8, 28.2, 24.0, 21.6, 18.6], "rev_series": [5.0, 7.1, 8.8, 11.8, 15.4, 20.9], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, 1.3, 1.4, 1.3, 1.5], "roe_series": [23.5, 22.7, 21.7, 12.2, 7.8, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.5, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_ttm": -5.2, "fcf_yield": -4.9, "ocf_yield": -3.4, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 12.1, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.9, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.4, "capex_dep": 14.29, "interest_debt": 17.1, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 16.3, "payout": 16.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 33.5, "np_cagr3": 6.9, "rev_yoy": 36.1, "np_yoy": 1.9, "np_vol": 10.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["数字商品综合运营", 29.0], ["数字化虚拟商品综合运营服务", 29.0], ["物联网应用解决方案", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.6, "ret_prev2_year": -2.8, "ret_ytd": 4.3, "ret_pivot": 115.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": 5.9, "ret_250": -0.7, "mdd_250": -41.5, "vol_250": 61.5, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 46, "hard": 16, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 67.7 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.9%(经营现金流/市值 -3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 14.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 2% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "蜂助手:PE 比行业中位低 14.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}