{"F": {"ts_code": "301381.SZ", "name": "赛维时代", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "互联网电商", "sw3": "跨境电商", "ind": "互联网电商", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.15, "pe_ttm": 33.6678, "pb": 3.2837, "dv_ttm": 2.1437, "total_mv": 941012.5435, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.8, 62.8, 65.6, 45.8, 43.8, 42.7], "rev_series": [52.5, 55.6, 49.1, 65.6, 102.8, 118.2], "np_series": [4.5, 3.5, 1.9, 3.4, 2.1, 2.8], "roe_series": [65.1, 31.9, 13.6, 17.3, 8.8, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 126.7, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 10.6, "fcf_ttm": 9.4, "fcf_yield": 10.0, "ocf_yield": 11.3, "gm_median": 45.8, "gm_std": 9.9, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 13.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.0, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.28, "capex_dep": 5.94, "interest_debt": 8.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 71.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 34.0, "np_cagr3": 15.2, "rev_yoy": 16.0, "np_yoy": -2.1, "np_vol": 48.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 20.4, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 65.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["服饰配饰商品销售", 28.0], ["服饰配饰", 28.0], ["非服饰配饰商品销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.6, "ret_prev2_year": -23.9, "ret_ytd": 13.8, "ret_pivot": 9.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": 30.2, "ret_120": 16.3, "ret_250": 6.2, "mdd_250": -34.2, "vol_250": 43.9, "pos_52w": 89.9}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 57, "hard": 3, "bondness": 41}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%,自由现金流/市值 10.0%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.0%(经营现金流/市值 11.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 5.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 30% / 16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「互联网电商」19 家中位:PE 32.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 31.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 74%。", "赛维时代:PE 比行业中位高 1.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}