{"F": {"ts_code": "301379.SZ", "name": "天山电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.06, "pe_ttm": 54.9164, "pb": 3.8619, "dv_ttm": 0.7028, "total_mv": 556628.2902, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.0, 19.3, 20.7, 19.4, 21.4, 19.7], "rev_series": [6.2, 10.9, 12.3, 12.7, 14.8, 17.9], "np_series": [0.5, 1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 1.5, 1.4], "roe_series": [15.6, 26.5, 14.3, 8.4, 11.1, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.8, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.4, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.86, "capex_dep": 3.31, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 37.3, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 37.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.1, "np_cagr3": 6.3, "rev_yoy": 10.9, "np_yoy": -54.7, "np_vol": 40.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["彩色液晶显示模组-非受托加工", 30.0], ["单色液晶显示模组", 8.0], ["显示屏", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.2, "ret_ytd": 9.5, "ret_pivot": 164.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": -16.7, "ret_120": 5.9, "ret_250": -0.6, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 76.4, "pos_52w": 53.6}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 51, "hard": 50, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 3.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.9 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -17% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "天山电子:PE 比行业中位低 6.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}