{"F": {"ts_code": "301377.SZ", "name": "鼎泰高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 376.21, "pe_ttm": 167.3953, "pb": 51.079, "dv_ttm": 0.2384, "total_mv": 15952994.462, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.4, 38.6, 38.7, 36.4, 35.8, 42.3], "rev_series": [9.7, 12.2, 12.2, 13.2, 15.8, 21.4], "np_series": [1.8, 2.4, 2.2, 2.2, 2.3, 4.3], "roe_series": [30.5, 29.7, 14.3, 9.7, 9.5, 16.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.8, "np_ttm": 9.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -8.7, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 38.6, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 18.3, "roe_median": 14.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.6, "fix_assets": 17.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 51.08, "capex_dep": 8.04, "interest_debt": 15.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 51.7, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 84.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 20.7, "np_cagr3": 24.9, "rev_yoy": 114.9, "np_yoy": 325.1, "np_vol": 36.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 115.8, "fwd_pe2": 67.1, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 73.0, "peg": 1.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["精密刀具", 79.0], ["研磨抛光材料", 6.0], ["其他业务", 6.0], ["智能数控装备及精密零部件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 594.0, "ret_prev2_year": -10.3, "ret_ytd": 171.4, "ret_pivot": 2596.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.7, "ret_60": -12.7, "ret_120": 108.7, "ret_250": 419.6, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 87.6, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 60, "hard": 43, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 167.4 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.6%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 8.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 167.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 420%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 88%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -13% / 109%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "鼎泰高科:PE 比行业中位高 116.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点。"]}}