{"F": {"ts_code": "301376.SZ", "name": "致欧科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230621", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.8, "pe_ttm": 24.4768, "pb": 2.7185, "dv_ttm": 1.6736, "total_mv": 957876.22, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.9, 32.6, 31.6, 36.3, 34.7, 34.5], "rev_series": [39.7, 59.7, 54.6, 60.7, 81.2, 87.0], "np_series": [3.8, 2.4, 2.5, 4.1, 3.3, 3.4], "roe_series": [43.9, 16.9, 14.9, 16.8, 10.5, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 94.8, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 26.6, "fcf_ttm": 25.5, "fcf_yield": 26.6, "ocf_yield": 27.7, "gm_median": 34.5, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.2, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.72, "capex_dep": 10.72, "interest_debt": 28.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 52.3, "debt_mv": 29.4, "payout": 46.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": 10.3, "rev_yoy": 19.3, "np_yoy": 29.2, "np_vol": 34.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 20.0, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["家具系列", 27.0], ["家居系列", 17.0], ["宠物系列", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.5, "ret_prev2_year": -18.5, "ret_ytd": 33.2, "ret_pivot": 49.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 20.0, "ret_60": 48.1, "ret_120": 40.2, "ret_250": 24.2, "mdd_250": -28.8, "vol_250": 41.3, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 54, "hard": 2, "bondness": 41}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 29%,PE TTM 24.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.0 倍,PEG 0.77。", "自由现金流 25.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 26%(21 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.5%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 26.6%(经营现金流/市值 27.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 10.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.5 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 48% / 40%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "致欧科技:PE 比行业中位低 3.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.4个百分点。"]}}