{"F": {"ts_code": "301370.SZ", "name": "国科恒泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.69, "pe_ttm": 152.8143, "pb": 1.6618, "dv_ttm": 1.3931, "total_mv": 408951.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.2, 14.1, 13.2, 11.7, 10.8, 10.6], "rev_series": [48.6, 58.5, 63.6, 74.8, 73.5, 69.9], "np_series": [1.5, 1.5, 1.2, 1.5, 1.3, 0.7], "roe_series": [13.2, 12.0, 8.9, 7.9, 5.3, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 10.7, "ocf_yield": 14.5, "gm_median": 11.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.0, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 4.92, "interest_debt": 14.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.8, "debt_ratio": 60.1, "debt_mv": 34.9, "payout": 32.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": -18.0, "rev_yoy": -14.0, "np_yoy": -79.4, "np_vol": 23.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["血管介入治疗类材料", 37.0], ["其他商品", 3.0], ["其他产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.1, "ret_prev2_year": -33.2, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": -2.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": -21.3, "ret_250": -22.7, "mdd_250": -34.9, "vol_250": 28.0, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 43, "hard": 14, "bondness": 52}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 152.8 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.7%(经营现金流/市值 14.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 4.92 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 152.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -0% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "国科恒泰:PE 比行业中位高 114.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 43.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}