{"F": {"ts_code": "301369.SZ", "name": "联动科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220922", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 121.95, "pe_ttm": 278.239, "pb": 8.0274, "dv_ttm": 0.2424, "total_mv": 1247642.4015, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.4, 67.0, 65.4, 61.9, 56.4, 55.7], "rev_series": [2.0, 3.4, 3.5, 2.4, 3.1, 3.5], "np_series": [0.6, 1.3, 1.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [21.1, 33.3, 12.4, 1.6, 1.4, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 61.9, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.7, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.03, "capex_dep": 1.48, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 9.3, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 89.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.4, "np_cagr3": -35.7, "rev_yoy": 43.5, "np_yoy": 93.2, "np_vol": 66.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["半导体自动化测试系统", 42.0], ["半导体激光打标设备及其他机电一体化设备", 4.0], ["半导体激光打标设备及其他一体化设备", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 158.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.3, "ret_ytd": 32.3, "ret_pivot": 312.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": -33.5, "ret_120": 31.1, "ret_250": 154.8, "mdd_250": -55.8, "vol_250": 74.3, "pos_52w": 49.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 9, "bondness": 55}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 278.2 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.9%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.48 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 278.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 155%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -34% / 31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "联动科技:PE 比行业中位高 196.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点。"]}}