{"F": {"ts_code": "301368.SZ", "name": "丰立智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.7225, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 533545.488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 21.2, 19.7, 17.1, 14.9, 9.2], "rev_series": [3.8, 5.7, 4.3, 4.3, 5.0, 5.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [18.6, 20.5, 7.0, 2.5, 1.7, -2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.8, "fix_assets": 9.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.72, "capex_dep": 2.61, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 10.3, "debt_ratio": 45.1, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 45.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.2, "np_yoy": -394.1, "np_vol": 97.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["齿轮", 16.0], ["气动工具及零部件", 10.0], ["气动工具", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.0, "ret_prev2_year": -1.9, "ret_ytd": -39.7, "ret_pivot": 16.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -15.2, "ret_120": -33.3, "ret_250": -48.5, "mdd_250": -55.7, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 46.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 86, "bondness": 45}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 10.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 2.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -15% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "丰立智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.0个百分点。"]}}