{"F": {"ts_code": "301366.SZ", "name": "一博科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.23, "pe_ttm": 129.7729, "pb": 5.2481, "dv_ttm": 0.1801, "total_mv": 1157268.4326, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.1, 42.3, 40.9, 35.9, 33.3, 28.5], "rev_series": [5.7, 7.1, 7.8, 7.9, 8.9, 11.3], "np_series": [1.3, 1.5, 1.5, 1.0, 0.9, 0.3], "roe_series": [26.6, 22.4, 10.7, 4.6, 4.1, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 35.9, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.4, "fix_assets": 13.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.25, "capex_dep": 2.69, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 27.7, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 67.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": -42.3, "rev_yoy": 41.6, "np_yoy": 1561.5, "np_vol": 29.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["PCBA制造服务", 83.0], ["PCB设计服务", 17.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.9, "ret_prev2_year": 32.2, "ret_ytd": 57.0, "ret_pivot": 168.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 21.3, "ret_120": 65.5, "ret_250": 24.3, "mdd_250": -43.2, "vol_250": 65.6, "pos_52w": 88.0}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 53, "hard": 71, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 129.8 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%、固定资产占比 44%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 44%、毛利率 35.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 2.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 129.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 21% / 66%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "一博科技:PE 比行业中位高 64.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}