{"F": {"ts_code": "301362.SZ", "name": "民爆光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "照明设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "照明设备Ⅲ", "ind": "照明设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230804", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 104.04, "pe_ttm": 114.3468, "pb": 6.1936, "dv_ttm": 0.9854, "total_mv": 1518408.6588, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.1, 28.2, 32.1, 32.9, 30.2, 28.1], "rev_series": [10.6, 15.0, 14.7, 15.3, 16.4, 16.7], "np_series": [1.8, 1.7, 2.5, 2.3, 2.3, 1.8], "roe_series": [25.9, 20.1, 23.8, 12.4, 9.0, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.4, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 30.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.5, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 4.9, "pb_calc": 6.19, "capex_dep": 10.26, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 26.6, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 85.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": -9.1, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": -48.2, "np_vol": 21.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 46.2, "fwd_pe2": 24.3, "fwd_g1": 148.0, "fwd_g2": 90.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["LED商业照明灯具", 17.0], ["LED 商业照明产品", 17.0], ["工业照明-灯具产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.9, "ret_prev2_year": 5.2, "ret_ytd": 262.9, "ret_pivot": 442.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -26.0, "ret_60": -43.3, "ret_120": 43.0, "ret_250": 206.5, "mdd_250": -57.5, "vol_250": 85.3, "pos_52w": 43.2}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 54, "hard": 31, "bondness": 53}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 114.3 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 46.2 倍,次年 24.3 倍,PEG 0.51。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.2%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 10.26 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 206%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -26% / -43% / 43%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「照明设备Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 61.2 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 25.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 71%。", "民爆光电:PE 比行业中位高 53.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点。"]}}