{"F": {"ts_code": "301360.SZ", "name": "荣旗科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230425", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.59, "pe_ttm": 78.0255, "pb": 3.1324, "dv_ttm": 0.4992, "total_mv": 373980.816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.2, 45.3, 41.7, 39.7, 39.2, 40.8], "rev_series": [2.4, 2.9, 3.6, 3.6, 3.7, 4.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [43.9, 38.2, 33.2, 6.4, 3.9, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 40.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 12.1, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.3, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.13, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 35.4, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": -14.3, "rev_yoy": 48.2, "np_yoy": 104.8, "np_vol": 21.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 27.0], ["智能装备", 23.0], ["智能装备：智能组装装备", 15.0], ["智能组装装备", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.2, "ret_prev2_year": -42.8, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 66.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": -24.4, "ret_120": -3.1, "ret_250": 29.3, "mdd_250": -50.4, "vol_250": 69.3, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 61, "hard": 10, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 78.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.8%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 78.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -24% / -3%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "荣旗科技:PE 比行业中位高 27.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.5个百分点。"]}}