{"F": {"ts_code": "301358.SZ", "name": "湖南裕能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.82, "pe_ttm": 12.1902, "pb": 2.3225, "dv_ttm": 0.6345, "total_mv": 4732038.3494, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.5, 26.3, 12.5, 7.6, 7.8, 9.2], "rev_series": [9.6, 70.7, 427.9, 413.6, 226.0, 346.2], "np_series": [0.4, 11.8, 30.1, 15.8, 5.9, 12.8], "roe_series": [3.7, 56.0, 71.4, 18.6, 5.2, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 551.4, "np_ttm": 38.8, "ocf_ttm": -27.0, "fcf_ttm": -45.6, "fcf_yield": -9.6, "ocf_yield": -5.7, "gm_median": 9.2, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.24, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 18.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 181.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.32, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 111.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 60.3, "debt_mv": 23.5, "payout": 20.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.8, "np_cagr3": -24.8, "rev_yoy": 142.9, "np_yoy": 853.5, "np_vol": 1156.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 59.0, "earn_yield": 8.2, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 8.7, "fwd_pe2": 7.6, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["磷酸铁锂", 49.0], ["磷酸盐正极材料", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["其他产品", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.5, "ret_prev2_year": 35.7, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": 111.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.3, "ret_60": -18.9, "ret_120": -29.4, "ret_250": 61.2, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 66.8, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 19, "hard": 56, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.2%,稳定度 24%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.6%(经营现金流/市值 -5.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.2%,稳定度 24%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.2 倍 粗算,约 59%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -19% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "湖南裕能:PE 比行业中位低 23.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}