{"F": {"ts_code": "301357.SZ", "name": "北方长龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 101.5, "pe_ttm": 3060.9548, "pb": 8.6212, "dv_ttm": 0.0591, "total_mv": 966280.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.5, 62.4, 57.1, 48.7, 47.6, 50.5], "rev_series": [2.6, 2.9, 2.5, 1.3, 1.0, 2.1], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, 0.8, 0.1, -0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [59.6, 42.1, 22.7, 1.5, -1.1, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.9, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 50.5, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 14.0, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.6, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.62, "capex_dep": 3.25, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 8.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 23.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -6.2, "np_cagr3": -28.8, "rev_yoy": -21.2, "np_yoy": -2351.6, "np_vol": 178.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["军车人机环系统内饰", 16.0], ["军用车辆人机环系统内饰", 16.0], ["军车配套装备", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 324.7, "ret_prev2_year": -7.7, "ret_ytd": -28.0, "ret_pivot": 316.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 14.8, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -37.9, "mdd_250": -61.7, "vol_250": 81.2, "pos_52w": 54.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 61, "hard": 47, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 3061.0 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 50.5%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.5%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.5%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.25 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 3061.0 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 15% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "北方长龙:PE 比行业中位高 2953.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}