{"F": {"ts_code": "301356.SZ", "name": "天振股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221114", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.95, "pe_ttm": 45.5204, "pb": 1.4649, "dv_ttm": 0.9273, "total_mv": 430920.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 20.5, 22.3, -7.0, 10.1, 18.6], "rev_series": [22.4, 31.8, 29.7, 3.1, 8.9, 15.5], "np_series": [3.7, 2.8, 3.8, -2.7, -0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [39.2, 25.8, 16.4, -8.3, -1.3, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 10.8, "gm_stab": 0.42, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.3, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.46, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 9.3, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 47.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -19.5, "np_cagr3": -39.4, "rev_yoy": -7.4, "np_yoy": 21.1, "np_vol": 162.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["SPC地板", 29.0], ["WPC地板", 15.0], ["LVT地板", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.9, "ret_prev2_year": -13.5, "ret_ytd": -5.0, "ret_pivot": 58.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -12.4, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": 3.5, "mdd_250": -45.9, "vol_250": 55.8, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 28, "hard": 36, "bondness": 42}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 46 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 9%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 42%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -12% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "天振股份:PE 比行业中位高 17.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点。"]}}