{"F": {"ts_code": "301355.SZ", "name": "南王科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.27, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3722, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 200365.5433, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 18.9, 18.1, 17.8, 15.7, 12.6], "rev_series": [8.5, 12.0, 10.5, 11.5, 14.0, 17.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.4, -0.3], "roe_series": [12.2, 13.8, 11.0, 6.4, 2.4, -1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.2, "fix_assets": 10.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 3.28, "interest_debt": 6.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 40.9, "debt_mv": 31.5, "payout": 68.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.6, "np_yoy": -639.3, "np_vol": 69.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["环保纸袋", 17.0], ["食品包装", 15.0], ["无纺布袋", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.5, "ret_prev2_year": -12.2, "ret_ytd": -22.9, "ret_pivot": 7.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -21.5, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 63, "bondness": 40}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 3.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -1% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "南王科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点。"]}}