{"F": {"ts_code": "301349.SZ", "name": "信德新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.23, "pe_ttm": 60.6439, "pb": 2.1661, "dv_ttm": 0.5047, "total_mv": 601770.7432, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.3, 40.6, 27.0, 13.7, 4.9, 11.3], "rev_series": [2.7, 4.9, 9.0, 9.5, 8.1, 11.6], "np_series": [0.9, 1.4, 1.5, 0.4, -0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [29.0, 32.9, 9.1, 1.5, -1.2, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.8, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 13.7, "gm_std": 12.8, "gm_stab": 0.07, "gm_chg_2022": -26.3, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.8, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 5.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 0.79, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 24.1, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 76.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": -36.2, "rev_yoy": 63.3, "np_yoy": 617.6, "np_vol": 132.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 28.8, "fwd_pe2": 20.6, "fwd_g1": 111.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["负极包覆材料", 17.0], ["裂解萘馏分", 15.0], ["炭黑原料油", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.2, "ret_prev2_year": -31.4, "ret_ytd": 26.8, "ret_pivot": 166.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -23.1, "ret_120": 12.0, "ret_250": 47.8, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 61.9, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 13, "hard": 25, "bondness": 52}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 60.6 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 28.8 倍,次年 20.6 倍,PEG 0.72。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 7%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -23% / 12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "信德新材:PE 比行业中位高 24.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点。"]}}