{"F": {"ts_code": "301348.SZ", "name": "蓝箭电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路封测", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.03, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4096, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 504720.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.5, 23.8, 20.5, 15.6, 8.0, 2.8], "rev_series": [5.7, 7.4, 7.5, 7.4, 7.1, 7.1], "np_series": [1.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.2, -0.4], "roe_series": [33.9, 12.0, 10.4, 5.1, 1.0, -2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.0, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 15.6, "gm_std": 7.8, "gm_stab": 0.5, "gm_chg_2022": 0.0, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.3, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.41, "capex_dep": 2.23, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 30.1, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 77.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 24.5, "np_yoy": 127.0, "np_vol": 125.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["封测服务", 29.0], ["自有品牌", 20.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.2, "ret_prev2_year": -44.5, "ret_ytd": 4.2, "ret_pivot": 25.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -15.9, "ret_120": -20.3, "ret_250": -6.0, "mdd_250": -52.7, "vol_250": 62.8, "pos_52w": 57.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 45, "bondness": 51}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 30%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 50%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.23 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -16% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "蓝箭电子:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.9个百分点。"]}}