{"F": {"ts_code": "301345.SZ", "name": "涛涛车业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "摩托车", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230321", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 229.01, "pe_ttm": 24.614, "pb": 6.3228, "dv_ttm": 1.31, "total_mv": 2497333.4391, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.1, 33.0, 35.8, 37.6, 35.0, 41.5], "rev_series": [13.9, 20.2, 17.7, 21.4, 29.8, 39.4], "np_series": [2.2, 2.4, 2.1, 2.8, 4.3, 8.2], "roe_series": [56.0, 39.1, 24.3, 14.4, 14.1, 24.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.8, "np_ttm": 10.1, "ocf_ttm": 9.8, "fcf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 35.8, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 24.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.7, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.5, "pb_calc": 6.32, "capex_dep": 4.24, "interest_debt": 12.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 43.2, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 50.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 30.7, "np_cagr3": 58.2, "rev_yoy": 60.6, "np_yoy": 57.9, "np_vol": 35.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 20.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["电动出行产品", 38.0], ["动力运动产品", 9.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 308.9, "ret_prev2_year": 12.3, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 360.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.7, "ret_60": 17.2, "ret_120": 10.4, "ret_250": 21.2, "mdd_250": -30.9, "vol_250": 55.8, "pos_52w": 81.1}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 58, "hard": 19, "bondness": 28}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 58%,PE TTM 24.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.1 倍,PEG 0.59。", "自由现金流 7.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 34%(18 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.8%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 4.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 17% / 10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "涛涛车业:PE 比行业中位低 4.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}