{"F": {"ts_code": "301338.SZ", "name": "凯格精机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 94.0, "pe_ttm": 54.4802, "pb": 8.1635, "dv_ttm": 0.4027, "total_mv": 1400224.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 39.9, 45.2, 30.9, 32.2, 41.3], "rev_series": [6.0, 8.0, 7.8, 7.4, 8.6, 11.6], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 1.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.9], "roe_series": [29.2, 27.5, 13.8, 3.7, 4.9, 12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.3, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 39.9, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 8.16, "capex_dep": 1.13, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 41.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": 13.7, "rev_yoy": 61.5, "np_yoy": 104.7, "np_vol": 72.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 32.2, "fwd_pe2": 21.2, "fwd_g1": 69.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锡膏印刷设备", 49.0], ["封装设备", 18.0], ["LED封装设备", 18.0], ["点胶设备", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 187.4, "ret_prev2_year": -24.0, "ret_ytd": 50.3, "ret_pivot": 451.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.1, "ret_60": -36.8, "ret_120": -29.8, "ret_250": 87.8, "mdd_250": -59.7, "vol_250": 84.8, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 60, "hard": 4, "bondness": 19}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 105%,PE TTM 54.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 32.2 倍,PEG 0.62。", "自由现金流 1.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 52%(10 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.9%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 1.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.5 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 88%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -37% / -30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "凯格精机:PE 比行业中位高 12.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点。"]}}