{"F": {"ts_code": "301335.SZ", "name": "天元宠物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.77, "pe_ttm": 76.2694, "pb": 1.6268, "dv_ttm": 0.774, "total_mv": 316555.3983, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.6, 18.4, 20.0, 17.8, 16.0, 19.3], "rev_series": [14.5, 18.5, 18.9, 20.4, 27.6, 30.0], "np_series": [1.1, 1.1, 1.3, 0.8, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [18.6, 15.0, 9.6, 4.0, 2.4, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 4.08, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 37.5, "debt_mv": 23.6, "payout": 54.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.7, "np_cagr3": -23.0, "rev_yoy": 9.9, "np_yoy": -46.3, "np_vol": 28.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 39.6, "fwd_pe2": 31.6, "fwd_g1": 92.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["宠物食品", 21.0], ["其他宠物用品", 9.0], ["宠物窝垫", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.5, "ret_prev2_year": 7.5, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": 50.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.6, "ret_60": 19.7, "ret_120": -8.1, "ret_250": -28.9, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 37.6, "pos_52w": 68.0}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 48, "hard": 26, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 76.3 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 39.6 倍,次年 31.6 倍,PEG 1.52。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 4.08 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 20% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "天元宠物:PE 比行业中位高 28.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}