{"F": {"ts_code": "301331.SZ", "name": "恩威医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.44, "pe_ttm": 74.4677, "pb": 2.1588, "dv_ttm": 4.756, "total_mv": 220600.2336, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.8, 56.3, 50.2, 51.3, 50.8, 49.5], "rev_series": [6.3, 6.8, 6.9, 7.9, 8.1, 9.0], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 0.9, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [19.9, 16.6, 7.6, 7.7, 3.5, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 50.8, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -11.6, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 7.0, "pb_calc": 2.16, "capex_dep": 1.59, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 28.9, "debt_mv": 9.2, "payout": 65.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": -8.5, "rev_yoy": -16.6, "np_yoy": -58.2, "np_vol": 35.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["妇科类", 12.0], ["妇科产品", 12.0], ["大健康产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.8, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 6.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": -43.7, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 62, "hard": 30, "bondness": 69}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 74.5 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.8%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.59 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 74.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -2% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "恩威医药:PE 比行业中位高 51.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点。"]}}