{"F": {"ts_code": "301322.SZ", "name": "绿通科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "其他运输设备", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.45, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9746, "dv_ttm": 0.1267, "total_mv": 562777.5255, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.8, 24.6, 30.4, 33.5, 26.4, 25.7], "rev_series": [5.6, 10.2, 14.7, 10.8, 8.3, 9.9], "np_series": [0.5, 1.3, 3.1, 2.6, 1.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [20.4, 37.8, 57.7, 14.6, 5.0, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.7, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 3.6, "npm_median": 17.1, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 7.6, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 16.8, "debt_ratio": 26.1, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 50.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -12.4, "np_cagr3": -47.9, "rev_yoy": 47.5, "np_yoy": -109.5, "np_vol": 93.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高尔夫球车", 17.0], ["半导体设备销售", 14.0], ["配件", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.0, "ret_prev2_year": -23.8, "ret_ytd": 43.8, "ret_pivot": 129.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.6, "ret_60": -31.7, "ret_120": 20.5, "ret_250": 8.8, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 60.3, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 19, "bondness": 53}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -32% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "绿通科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}