{"F": {"ts_code": "301319.SZ", "name": "唯特偶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 91.17, "pe_ttm": 187.5534, "pb": 13.8303, "dv_ttm": 0.3743, "total_mv": 1663504.0027, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 22.1, 18.0, 21.1, 17.7, 15.3], "rev_series": [5.9, 8.6, 10.4, 9.6, 12.1, 15.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 1.0, 0.9, 0.8], "roe_series": [21.9, 24.3, 11.5, 9.3, 7.8, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.7, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -9.8, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.7, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.83, "capex_dep": 2.91, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 36.4, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 78.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.9, "np_cagr3": -1.6, "rev_yoy": 40.6, "np_yoy": 23.5, "np_vol": 16.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 92.1, "fwd_pe2": 72.4, "fwd_g1": 104.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 3.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["微电子焊接材料", 88.0], ["微电子辅助焊接材料", 8.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 188.2, "ret_prev2_year": -26.9, "ret_ytd": 140.6, "ret_pivot": 771.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -23.8, "ret_60": -31.1, "ret_120": 190.1, "ret_250": 323.0, "mdd_250": -61.6, "vol_250": 91.2, "pos_52w": 44.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 43, "hard": 6, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 187.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 92.1 倍,次年 72.4 倍,PEG 3.41。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 2.91 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 187.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 323%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 91%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -24% / -31% / 190%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "唯特偶:PE 比行业中位高 93.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 29.2个百分点。"]}}