{"F": {"ts_code": "301316.SZ", "name": "慧博云通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.4, "pe_ttm": 131.6292, "pb": 13.5142, "dv_ttm": 0.275, "total_mv": 1469107.64, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.9, 24.4, 24.4, 24.3, 23.8, 20.7], "rev_series": [6.9, 9.2, 11.8, 13.6, 17.4, 22.5], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 1.0], "roe_series": [20.5, 14.3, 11.2, 8.3, 6.5, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.9, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 24.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 8.6, "pb_calc": 13.51, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 36.5, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 41.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 23.8, "np_cagr3": 3.1, "rev_yoy": 23.8, "np_yoy": 244.7, "np_vol": 23.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["软件技术服务", 25.0], ["软件技术外包服务", 25.0], ["专业技术服务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.6, "ret_prev2_year": 10.5, "ret_ytd": -18.3, "ret_pivot": 152.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": 4.0, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -38.0, "mdd_250": -50.6, "vol_250": 60.6, "pos_52w": 55.8}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 49, "hard": 10, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 131.6 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 131.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 4% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "慧博云通:PE 比行业中位高 47.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}