{"F": {"ts_code": "301313.SZ", "name": "凡拓数创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "其他数字媒体", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220930", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.5776, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 332481.2166, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.5, 38.4, 38.1, 37.8, 20.4, 23.5], "rev_series": [6.5, 7.1, 6.1, 5.8, 3.7, 6.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.2, 0.1, -1.9, -1.3], "roe_series": [16.9, 15.9, 2.4, 1.0, -20.3, -18.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": -1.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 37.8, "gm_std": 8.0, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 6.5, "pb_calc": 5.58, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 54.1, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": 146.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -27.8, "np_yoy": -64.9, "np_vol": 746.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["数字展示及系统集成", 19.0], ["数字一体化综合服务", 19.0], ["数字孪生及信息化软件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.4, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": 22.6, "ret_pivot": 81.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -41.6, "ret_120": 2.2, "ret_250": 18.0, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 70.3, "pos_52w": 46.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 31, "bondness": 57}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 54%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 37.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.8%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -42% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "凡拓数创:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.7个百分点。"]}}