{"F": {"ts_code": "301311.SZ", "name": "昆船智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.04, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9995, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 336960.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 22.2, 22.5, 21.7, 16.7, 11.2], "rev_series": [16.2, 19.1, 20.6, 20.9, 20.0, 20.0], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.1, 0.8, 0.1, -0.9], "roe_series": [10.9, 11.3, 8.0, 4.4, 0.3, -5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 11.0, "ocf_yield": 11.1, "gm_median": 21.7, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.0, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 0.09, "interest_debt": 4.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 55.1, "debt_mv": 13.4, "payout": 98.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -35.7, "np_yoy": -125.3, "np_vol": 623.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能产线系统及装备", 23.0], ["智能物流系统及装备", 17.0], ["专项产品及相关服务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.8, "ret_prev2_year": -25.4, "ret_ytd": -25.0, "ret_pivot": -13.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": -0.5, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -36.6, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 32.2, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 11, "bondness": 57}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 55%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 11.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.0%(经营现金流/市值 11.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.09 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -0% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "昆船智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.8个百分点。"]}}