{"F": {"ts_code": "301309.SZ", "name": "万得凯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.6, "pe_ttm": 26.6174, "pb": 1.9547, "dv_ttm": 0.9202, "total_mv": 327742.144, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.8, 25.7, 25.8, 24.5, 23.3, 23.3], "rev_series": [5.6, 7.5, 7.8, 6.9, 10.0, 8.6], "np_series": [0.7, 1.1, 1.3, 1.0, 1.5, 1.1], "roe_series": [26.7, 30.3, 13.9, 7.3, 10.0, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -6.4, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 24.5, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.0, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.2, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.95, "capex_dep": 4.78, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 12.3, "debt_mv": 3.1, "payout": 26.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.5, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": 21.7, "np_yoy": 15.6, "np_vol": 31.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["阀门", 28.0], ["管件", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.9, "ret_ytd": 17.6, "ret_pivot": 66.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": 3.2, "ret_250": 4.9, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 40.9, "pos_52w": 81.3}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 53, "hard": 56, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.6 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 4.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.6 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 10% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "万得凯:PE 比行业中位低 24.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点。"]}}