{"F": {"ts_code": "301307.SZ", "name": "美利信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.72, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.0491, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1173463.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.9, 16.2, 17.3, 15.5, 9.7, 4.1], "rev_series": [18.3, 22.8, 31.7, 31.9, 36.6, 38.8], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 2.2, 1.4, -1.6, -5.7], "roe_series": [10.0, 7.8, 15.6, 5.6, -5.2, -20.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.2, "np_ttm": -6.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -5.2, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 15.5, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.8, "fix_assets": 41.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.05, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 31.3, "debt_ebitda": 18.5, "debt_ratio": 71.0, "debt_mv": 26.7, "payout": 17.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 7.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": -57.8, "np_vol": 140.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 398.0, "fwd_pe2": 40.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 893.0, "peg": 0.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["汽车零部件", 22.0], ["汽车类零部件", 22.0], ["通信类结构件", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.1, "ret_prev2_year": -41.2, "ret_ytd": 61.1, "ret_pivot": 204.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.7, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": 33.7, "ret_250": 106.5, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 79.8, "pos_52w": 59.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 83, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 18.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 68%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 106%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -8% / 34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "美利信:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.0个百分点。"]}}