{"F": {"ts_code": "301306.SZ", "name": "西测测试", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 98.58, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 9.1359, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 832015.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.1, 59.2, 52.6, 32.8, 8.6, 14.2], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 2.9, 3.9, 3.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.6, -0.5, -1.6, -1.3], "roe_series": [20.1, 20.6, 8.1, -4.3, -14.5, -13.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 32.8, "gm_std": 20.1, "gm_stab": 0.39, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": -16.7, "roe_median": -4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.5, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.14, "capex_dep": 3.38, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 45.5, "debt_mv": 7.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.7, "np_yoy": 5.2, "np_vol": 103.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 758.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["环境与可靠性试验", 27.0], ["电子装联业务", 7.0], ["电子装联", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 206.0, "ret_prev2_year": -5.6, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": 238.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": -20.3, "ret_120": -9.4, "ret_250": 49.4, "mdd_250": -57.6, "vol_250": 86.4, "pos_52w": 55.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 62, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.8%,稳定度 39%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.8%,稳定度 39%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 3.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -20% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "西测测试:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.4个百分点。"]}}