{"F": {"ts_code": "301301.SZ", "name": "川宁生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.39, "pe_ttm": 31.6551, "pb": 2.3458, "dv_ttm": 2.0599, "total_mv": 1872893.827, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 22.2, 24.8, 31.6, 36.4, 29.3], "rev_series": [36.5, 32.3, 38.2, 48.2, 57.6, 46.2], "np_series": [2.3, 1.1, 4.1, 9.4, 14.0, 7.7], "roe_series": [5.0, 2.4, 7.5, 14.3, 18.8, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.7, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 29.3, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 16.6, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.3, "fix_assets": 50.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.35, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 14.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 22.5, "debt_mv": 7.5, "payout": 50.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": 23.2, "rev_yoy": -10.7, "np_yoy": -39.0, "np_vol": 119.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 20.8, "fwd_pe2": 17.9, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["医药中间体", 44.0], ["其他业务", 4.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.7, "ret_prev2_year": 47.6, "ret_ytd": -15.8, "ret_pivot": -16.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.3, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": -33.2, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 31.4, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 54, "hard": 79, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.7 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.7 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 0% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "川宁生物:PE 比行业中位低 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点。"]}}