{"F": {"ts_code": "301299.SZ", "name": "卓创资讯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "门户网站", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.88, "pe_ttm": 41.5633, "pb": 4.7747, "dv_ttm": 3.0474, "total_mv": 278320.4676, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.6, 65.0, 65.8, 59.9, 65.6, 62.7], "rev_series": [2.2, 2.5, 2.7, 2.8, 2.9, 3.6], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [31.9, 23.4, 12.5, 7.6, 11.0, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 65.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 20.0, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 5.2, "pb_calc": 4.77, "capex_dep": 4.04, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 39.6, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 156.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": 4.0, "rev_yoy": 8.3, "np_yoy": 3.8, "np_vol": 17.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["资讯服务", 37.0], ["数智服务", 14.0], ["数智内容", 14.0], ["会展服务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 3.5, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": 36.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -30.3, "ret_250": -30.9, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 66.9}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 73, "hard": 24, "bondness": 64}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 157%、股息率 3.0%、营收 3 年复合 9.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 65.0%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 65.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 4.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.6 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -2% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "卓创资讯:PE 比行业中位低 44.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点。"]}}