{"F": {"ts_code": "301298.SZ", "name": "东利机械", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.83, "pe_ttm": 71.9582, "pb": 2.0675, "dv_ttm": 2.3154, "total_mv": 188344.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.2, 31.3, 27.6, 25.5, 29.5, 29.9], "rev_series": [3.9, 4.8, 5.2, 5.7, 6.3, 6.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 0.6, 0.9, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [10.3, 14.2, 8.8, 9.7, 6.8, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 11.0, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.3, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.07, "capex_dep": 2.09, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 31.8, "debt_mv": 15.3, "payout": 64.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": 5.9, "rev_yoy": -4.5, "np_yoy": -89.0, "np_vol": 32.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["燃油汽车零部件", 43.0], ["新能源汽车零部件", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.8, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": -17.3, "ret_pivot": 18.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -22.4, "ret_250": -25.5, "mdd_250": -40.2, "vol_250": 32.0, "pos_52w": 73.1}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 54, "hard": 82, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 72.0 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%、固定资产占比 51%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 2.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -1% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "东利机械:PE 比行业中位高 41.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.8个百分点。"]}}